NC State Predictions: We Only Split On One Game - Tuffy Talk

Two people went through the first six games of NC State's schedule and disagreed on exactly one of them. It is not Virginia and it is not Louisville.

Ethan calls the Louisville game the biggest fifty-fifty on the entire schedule and we both took the win anyway. The one that split us was Vanderbilt, where Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers are both gone and it is still not settled whether five-star freshman Jared Curtis takes the first snap. Ethan's comparison is driving down to Clemson years ago for Trevor Lawrence's first start, expecting the defense to give him problems, and watching him be great regardless.

Neither of us picked NC State to win at Virginia. Ethan's case is that the Cavaliers quietly built a top 25 defense down the stretch last season and that NC State has not covered a Week 1 spread since 2021. Layton's case is simpler: Virginia is loaded with seniors, and experience wins early. Beau Pribula takes over at quarterback after starting ten games at Missouri, where he went 7-3 and completed 67.4 percent, third best in the SEC.

We also get into why Louisville is the toughest home game on the schedule with an 8.5 win total and Jeff Brohm sitting at 28-12, and why Ethan thinks Wake Forest's nine-win season last year was as fluky as you will ever see, even with Gio Lopez reuniting with his old South Alabama coordinator.

Final tally through six: Layton has NC State 5-1, Ethan has them 4-2.

Part 2 covers the back half of the schedule, including the UNC game and the final record.

7 days until NC State at Virginia.

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Tuffy talk fired up and loud The Wolf Pack Nation wear a hell of a crowd from the first pitch to the final play Tuffy talk let's roll Today what's going on Wolfpack Nation It is finally 2026 NC State football season prediction time y'all You got myself late Smith you got Mr Ethan Berry here and we are so excited to give you our game by game predictions Win losses you name it And uh you know we'll definitely be upright and honest you know like these are honest predictions here We're gonna try and do our best you know balancing what the heart wants to get them which is 12 and 0 AC Champions college about playoffs We want that no doubt about it We got to use our heads a little bit here too as well So how it's gonna work as we'll go game by game obviously starting off with the Virginia game and you know by the end of it we'll have our full record Now part one will be basically the first six games of the season which is before the second by the season And then for part two we'll do the final six games of the season Uh and so yeah so make sure you stay tuned for for part 2 and make sure you do not miss out on part 2 Make sure hit that subscribe button if it split up for you That means you have not smashed yet So make sure you hit that subscribe button as a really help support the channel time Austin If you are so so excited for NC State football just like we are do us a favor hit that like button too as well Um so with that being said Ethan let's jump into it here man let's start off with game number one NC State at Virginia not in Brazil unfortunately but either way we're still playing football We're still moving forward here But uh yeah are you uh you know obviously NC State is a five and a half 6 point underdog depending on where you look Um but as he state beat UVA last year even though it wasn't on the record as ACC game Virginia went 11 and 3 last year and finished No 16 in both polls But new quarterback transfer out Missouri a very senior lead team which definitely helps especially today is college football air for sure Uh it's gonna be a great challenge to come right out the gate here Uh but what are your what are your thoughts here Ethan on uh whether Auntie State could pull off the subset or not It's weird to think you could be starting with the hardest game on the schedule You know you look at the point spread and you know Vanderbilt's a bigger spread but it's also non conference game You know you throw Louisville out there who could be tough will be tough I should say like Florida State you know if Florida State say like everything you say about Florida State you kind of say with a caviar it's like hey everything like it may go south for them Um but I I think you could look back at this and say this is the best team that NC State is playing this year And I you know I I don't know that that's reflected in the point spread Like I think state will probably be bigger underdogs and probably to Vanderbilt If I had to guess I think Vanderbilt You're looking at like a touchdown maybe a little more right now And so yeah I I don't know like I'm a fan like it's weird I don't really trust Virginia but I am a fan of how they operate in the portal I like they went cheap that quarterback I've talked about that possibility with NC State Well Virginia did that You know Virginia built up the rest of their roster they brought in a bunch of old guys Um look probula you know not as expensive as CJ Bailey and they brought in two quarterbacks Right so that was you figure a real competition So for me there's there's two things about this game that spooky No 1 is Virginia's defense I I think because state scored 35 against them last year That was probably state's best offensive game all year I don't think we fully recognize that Virginia's defense really became very good down the stretch last year SP+ I believe had them as a top 20 if not a top 25 defense And they're projected projected in a similar range this year And so I wonder look at I I I also talked about hey if you bring in a bunch of portal guys it takes time to get going And so I could see that applying to Virginia kind of just like you saw early So I do lean Virginia here And I mentioned one thing that spooks me No 1 is the defense No 2 is NC State early on in seasons I need to I know I'm the stats guy I need to verify this but I'm pretty sure they haven't covered the spread in Week 1 since 2021 And so that's what four straight um in 2021 they destroyed South Florida before going on the road to Mississippi State and putting up their worst game of the year So that's like but they've kind of gotten themselves in some dog fights where you they just I don't wanna say haven't been ready to go but they they're they're not as good early in the season especially Week 1 as they have been you know down the stretch And so those are kind of the two things that scare me Those are the two reasons for me why why I do lean Virginia here And I do like this isn't a game that I bet I don't feel strongly enough about it but it bet on the spread I should say with Virginia at what 5 five and a half yep I do like Virginia to win this game I feel like a little like a little bit like betting on this game would be like betting on preseason football where it's like yeah how do you know Like like like like there's there's no metric she can use for this Like it's it's who the heck knows how all these pieces are gonna fit together So yeah I mean so with Bo uh you know he is a guy that is a dual thread in a sense Uh last year at Missouri when he started he averaged around 10 rushes a game Uh keep in mind again that I'm I'm pretty sure sacks count into that uh as well Um but again I'm only average three yards of carry last year so not necessarily an explosive or anything like that But it's definitely a part of his game and some he's comfortable with Now thing that stands stands out to me about his stats from last year is the games where he struggled the most are the games where they faced tougher defenses You know in terms of formidable defenses South Carolina average about had a 59 completion percentage who's has Dylan Stewart solid defense Alabama 57 completion percentage Auburn one and double overtime had a 57 completion percentage and Oklahoma who has a really good defense uh another 55 completion percentage So uh you know again just a guy that I feel like is that Virginia brought in because I mean he has a lot of experience in terms of playing it as he see caliber level Now in terms of you know is he elite or even as a great quarterback I think I think he's a quarterback that will be able to do the job But my big thing is can CJ win the quarterback battle Can he do more than be a good quarterback receiver Can he be that league quarterback that we expect him to be this season And so that's really where it is for me but also too as well I can NC State establish their game early You know if you're in the second quarter and you're still trying to you know figure out who's who's your who's your target guy You know if you're if you're still trying to get the offense into a rhythm that for me is a big key can can If CJ can come out and punch you in the mouth early then I think you're gonna be in a good spot But if CJ and office is struggling then it's only gonna be a matter of time until UVA feel like breaks through So yeah I'm I'm gonna stick with with your prediction too as well and put this as a as a close loss But only just because the fact that you know I think that UVA's experience being very senior LED Uh you look at what Indiana did last year Experience does a lot and playing at UVA 2 as well It won't be at the craziest atmosphere by far The NC State will play in but it'll be enough you know where it could definitely make a difference Look at Brian Armstrong 2023 So I wanna say be that you know much of a storyline but it'll still be formidable enough So oh and one there unfortunately started the season but will love love love to be wrong on that Ethan Richmond We could send about 30 45 seconds on this coming off a bi week FCS team Um you know anything to really say about this Are you are you gonna absolutely just just go for the clickbait Ethan of all clickbaits and give us a L on this one too No no I don't I don't know if you said 30 seconds that was a lot I don't have anything on Richmond All right so what I want you would like to see what Wilson throw the ball in this game now That's one thing I will say ah yeah no agreed for sure I would love to put some good tape on it for future games to make future opponents aware that just a heads up Will Wilson can throw the football Yeah yeah I agree with that but you know again Ethan you know we're we're we're let's see today we're recording this like August 21st first home game of the season Tailgating will be back got the gorillas are gonna be back hopefully won't be too hot so alive grilling And and one thing that I hope too for sure is that all NC State fans definitely get that Coney goal barbecue sauce and rubs in their hands for that game cause uh it will be very very beneficial for your barbecue And for sure uh you know Ethan I'm still waiting on my on my Georgia peach barbecue sauce Man I'm waiting for It's gonna it's I love like like I I always every single year wait for the summer time to go get some peach milkshake from from chick fil a not sponsored by the way but for a Coney Gold to to come out with a peach flavored uh uh barbecue sauce I'm excited for it so make sure to go Wolfpack Nation go to our Coneygold Barbecue sauce.com Use the code toughy talk all caps all one word to get 15 off your entire order That's once again at all toughy talk all one word 15 off your entire order and you can use it repeatedly not just one time as many times as you order there Make sure you use that code and you get 15 off your entire order Go check them out here today before that opening homes game versus Richmond Alright let's jump into it though it gets a little bit tougher here at Vanderbilt here you know to my recollection Diego Pavia isn't gonna be on the opposite side of the ball right now Is that is that still true as far as I know But did they get better now quarterback Right I mean that's the question like probably not in Week 3 right But I remember I firsthand experience I went to the game where state it was Trevor Lawrence's first start down at Clemson And I remember going down thinking oh you know states got a good it wasn't a great defense but a good defense And you know they're gonna be able to give him some fits It's his first you know college start no none of none of that happens you know Lawrence was really good And I think Jared Curtis is is that kind of prospect But I don't believe at this point we even know for sure that he's gonna be their starting quarterback And like I said in Week 3 like Trevor Trevor Lawrence was generational at Clemson You don't expect Jared Curtis to be that good that quickly But I do think he probably gives them more upside And again I I think they grade out better offensively than defensively But again they they lost Pavia they lost Eli Sours you know who's who's a pretty big draft pick for them Another team sort of like Virginia where I trust what they did in the portal You know like I think they've done a good job building that program up And so this is a a fascinating I guess game um where I kind of like Virginia you're going in as underdogs And to me these these two are the games not not the only two but two of the games where you paid CJ Bailey to go win these games for you And yeah I I do lean Vanderbilt here I just I mean it's hard kind of like struggling in Week 1 And I I I I'm not sitting here telling you state is going to lose because they haven't been able to win on the road in these kind of spots against noncon in nonconference games But I like there is an element of that where it's like I got to see I kind of got to see you do it at some point And and they haven't And so yeah like you kind of hope again same thing with couple years ago and state went down to play Tennessee and it was Nico Eamaliaba Well Nico's not that good Well he was he was pretty good and say would have got smoked anyway But it I don't know just kind of always feels to me like every time I well if this guy's not that good right about like a five star freshman and they turn out to be pretty good Yeah I don't know man You know I for me this is kind of another one of those games where from a Dave Dorn perception perspective can be a huge slinger for sure Like if Fancy State blows this one especially if they get the beats break break speed off them then oh man Twitter is gonna be quite the interesting place to say the least But if they pull off this window even with the loss of Virginia man that would be one of Doran's best wins I would say that he's ever had If he could pull this off just off top of my head as you see as you see when on the road Ethan that's pretty big Oh I but yeah but he's beating I mean he's beating Clemson he's beating Florida State He's beat I mean he beat Lamar Jackson you know like I don't know I don't I don't really go that far from a perception perspective not the best one Yeah yeah but even still like I don't even think it's top five We don't even know if this Vanderal team is gonna be good Like it'd be one thing if you it'd be one thing if you're like oh you're going on the road to beat Alabama or Georgia Like that's different But Vanderbilt like Vanderbilt's win lost totals of five and a/2 so you know you're still kind of wondering if they can even get to a bowl But I do agree from a perception perspective you're absolutely right Like it's gonna go a long way from a perception perspective relative to how much this impacts the season It's a ton of perception but in terms of the season I don't really think this game matters at all Like I I state's not gonna be an at large team They have to win the ACC so I like this this one Yeah sure would be great And it would be a great talking point kind of like a monkey off the back situation But again you'd easily trade this loss for a win against Virginia win against Louisville However you want to look at that what and and that kind of goes to with the other piece though as well as I truly can paint a perfect picture where you know we struggle to get things clicking in a timely fashion And unfortunately we're step late and cannot pull off the Winbridge UVA but they take the by week They come into rich they come into Richmond they pull off a Campbell 20 25 esque and just you know dominate 35 42 nothing first half and then put Will Wilson and for a good amount and let him get some reps I and now you're ready to to go on the road and face Vanderbilt And like you said Vanderbilt I again won't be the Vanderbilt last two years but like you like we've also said like you don't have Diego Pavia You have either a five star freshman or you have another Prosp Basically another option that obviously is not big enough to where you're feeling confident who the starting quarterback is gonna be And you know is this the game where where you know CJ Bailey can break through and put together like we said that an elite performance which uh you know I think is is definitely he's gonna be due for this season but just once gonna happen But yeah I mean in terms of like SEC door unfortunately has not had a great track record with the SEC And so to to beat Vanderbilt team on the road would be big So I'm gonna leave I'm gonna leave on the upside here but again and just also two as well even though it doesn't say matter for the season in terms of the chance to win AC Championship from a momentum standpoint to take a big win like that into upstate and then into Louisville will be huge to kind of set up that Louisville game here So alright but upstate though I'm a little man you know I'm easy to say let's spend 30 seconds on this Ethan here But to me this is a little bit of a of a trap game of a sword It's stuck right in between two larger games of the season going on the road to Vanderbilt and then you face Louisville the next week Not necessarily say I fully seen upset but I I unfortunately see an opportunity where you kind of got your your your feet caught in cement for for a second and then NC State picks it back up and takes over and wins the game here Kind of Western Carolina esque from 2024 is kind of where I'm worried This game might go here a little bit especially cause app states gonna come into this game really fired up to make a statement Yeah I mean as built a reputation on these type of games Right I I do think to me the difference is they just they have not been the same team since for like they have not transitioned well in the portal era you know for a while There they could just they transition to their Sun Belt from the FCS level They kept right on rolling They went through coaches every year who get promoted They just kept on rolling But it does seem like the portal has kind of thrown them a curveball that they haven't quite figured out yet And so I mean I think they're 500 the last three years So this is not the you know and again some of those app teams that pulled off upsets that went to Texas a m that went to I believe South Carolina at UNC Like those teams weren't great They weren't vintage App State teams But I still think they were better than this team So I expect it yeah like they are an FBS team they are Sunbelt team Like I don't think this is a like there I don't think this is oh state just does whatever they want to do and wins by six touchdowns But I do expect state to be like three touchdown favorites in this game something in that range Maybe it's 17 or 24 points one way or the other But yeah I mean I expect state to win this game relatively handily Again I think their reputation what what's to say I don't know if I'm gonna say this right It precedes themselves where it's not as good as they actually are at this point in time But it's still a game it's still a game it's kind of like Dave and the SEC like that's not a real thing but you still kind of have to address it you know like does that make sense oh yeah for sure no hundred percent Yeah I don't really have much more to add just besides what I said which is just you know for me it definitely fits the definition of what could be considered a trap game You can't necessarily over Oh yeah can't can't can't can't get caught sleeping for sure Yeah that's a great file on your part Yeah yeah they'll you'll get the best version of App State whatever the best version of App State is right on September 26th now moving on to the next weekend the Louisville Saturday October 3rd Parents and families Gandancy states Uh in my opinion by far the biggest home game on the schedule of this upcoming season here And especially with Louis win total being at eight and a/2 which is the highest of anyone that we play at home Uh definitely gonna be a challenge for sure in it And Louvil's a team that everybody every national uh broadcaster you name it has circled as a sleeper team for for AC Championship in a College Football Playoff spot I didn't know that I'd consider them a sleeper I mean an eight and a half win total there plus 500+ 700 in that range to win the ACC I I I like to me this isn't a sleeper Like this is either the second or the third best team in the conference at least going in now You know they've got a question at quarterback with Lincoln Keinholtz Kindholz whatever kid who never played in Ohio State But again another team that it's been portal every single year And last year they kind of felt like they fell apart down the stretch with Miller Moss who just wasn't as good And and you know I've given Virginia Vanderel even Louisville kind of tip of the hat for you know building the program or building successful seasons I should say through the portal but you can see those kind of fall apart And I think you did like Louisville I think still won eight last year but they kind of fell apart down the stretch And so again like when you do the portal thing when you're bringing in 25 30 guys and most of them to start every year just it can be hit or miss And so that's kind of my thing with Louisville again right now This is probably the biggest fifty fifty game on the schedule that I see right now Um yeah you know factoring in home and away um like this one is a true Like this like this spread could be eaten So for me again another spot you know I think Louisville very similar to Virginia where Louisville's gonna be better at the other spots on the roster And NC State's gonna be better at quarterback And you know if I'm NC State I need CJ Bailey to go in this game I I do think you know state kind of got their mojo back at home they have lost four out of five or four out of six against ACC teams at home from the end of UH 24 through 25 I think they got their mojo back a little bit down the stretch last year beating Georgia Tech Florida State UNC So I I expect them to continue that and I like state to win this game I do I have state beating Louisville and and getting a big one at home Yeah well that yeah no I mean I agree I mean just to kind of highlight so you've already mentioned Lincoln kind client holds holds However you say his last name transfer my state Yeah I mean you know a guy that you kind of look at as you know is he gonna be a guy looking you know with a chip on his shoulder to prove himself he's got some really good options around him obviously has a great head coach and Jeff Bram who's been very impressive And now his fourth year at little old at 28 and 12 overall record uh which impressive for sure Obviously in 2023 took an AC championship where they lost to a third string quarterback FSU you know wish level could have taken care of the job and gone ahead and put floor stay out of their misery So we don't have to be hearing about it three years later though We should have made the playoffs You know well whatever it's old news Um so but also to as well got to give a highlight as well to Uh uh what's his name Oh oh Clev Lubin uh edge rusher for uh senior edge rusher for Louisville Uh definitely gained a lot of NFL talk So a guy that you know and she states offensive lines gonna have their hands full with Yeah well and Isaac Brown is there Yeah Isaac Brown is their guy running back to And he's he's a big big play guy He's very very good could have gone anywhere in the country And Louisville was able to keep him So really that I think the question for Louisville to me is is can Klein holds uh you know basically do his part to to keep run rush lanes open for him Uh that's gonna be a big keep but yeah gonna be a big game Uh a lot of build up to that game And wouldn't be surprised if it's you know if we only have one loss to Virginia at that point Louisville only has one loss to Ole Miss at that point You know can it be a more of a prime time game We'll see Time will tell Uh but yeah I'm I'm I'm gonna stick with the win too as well you know I think uh you know gonna give great 2018 vibes not necessarily because of who's at quarterback But still and she stay versus Louisville definitely gonna be a lot of build up to this game We'll see what happens here Uh so I'll give it up to that one So you you don't think Lincoln kindhorse is Lamar Jackson No no you know you know Lamar coming off we'll see off a Heinzman you know client holds coming off being a backup at Ohio State You know it's about the same you know six of one half a dozen another right same thing Right so I mean like hey I mean Julian sans up for the Heisman candidate a Heisman Trophy And you know he has you know one of the best wide receiving groups in the country But you know what what do I know You know so I anyway though but to wrap up part 1 here though Ethan going to our down the road foe here with good old wakeforest the craziest didn't they win 9 1 9 last one Yeah yeah the craziest nine win team of all time Yeah and again another like state doesn't get credit for beating an 11 win Virginia team I also haven't seen them get any credit for beating a nine win Wake Forest team because when state went to play nobody thought that nobody took Wake Forest seriously And I think Wake Forest look I know we like to bow down to 10 win seasons and think they're the be all end all But that was a pretty fluky We've seen some very fluky 10 win seasons which some people would rather have We've seen that was a as fluky of a 9 1 season I think you'll see all smoking mirrors I do think their defense was very good I do Um and I I was impressed with what Dicker did But some of the vibes around like that apparently they gave less money and they don't know where the money disappeared to The vibes around Wake Force have just kind of been weird Um and I do like I know we laughed at Geo Lopez at UNC last year I think you get him in the right system I think he's a productive college guy And if you're able to couple him with a you know a solid defense again which Wake Force defense last year was good it was Um I again win totals five and a/2 at home I expect state to win this one But I do think it could be tricky Like I think Wake Forest get somebody I probably pick Wake Forest to get to six or seven wins I kind of wonder if this is a situation where the team is similar maybe even a little better but it's not a nine win team You know it's one of those they're better but the record is worse type of situations Now get going from nine wins to likes If it's six wins that's a hard argument to make But yeah I do think this game could get a little tricky again coming off a Louisville game You talked about a trap game all of these home games like I I feel like you should pick state to to win them But like I I don't think this is a layup I don't think this is an easy win Like I I think this is gonna be a dog fight And again I I would expect the spread to be a touchdown or less Yeah no I mean again yeah like like you said uh kind of a little bit of me hopes that Geo is solid this season just to like give another Oh he will be I I think he will be yeah like a snow shake of the fist of Bill Belchick saying like see like once get away from the great Bill Belchick and all of a sudden now he's a solid quarterback You know but yeah no he was in the wrong system and I think wake force kind of understands that And if they put him in the right system yeah I think he'll be better Yeah no I mean again flukie season of all flukiest 9th thrienthree season ever I mean especially Robbie Ashford which is so boomer bust you you He would get one finally great pass and and beat you But the other four of the five times it would not be too It really impressive at all so still don't know how they got the nine wins But hey we'll take it We beat a 9 9 3 1 team put on the resume So with that being said Wolf Pack Nation will wrap up part 1 right there So I think I have NC State 5 and 1 Ethan 4 and 2 my laws being to UBA Ethan's being to Virginia and and Vanderbilt Um so with that being said make sure to tune in for part 2 and again to make sure you do not miss out and make sure do us a big favor hit that subscribe button so you're notified all your devices whenever we go live with any new content including part 2 Make sure go give a shout out to our amazing sponsor Coney Gold Barbecue Sauce that So you just go to oh Coney o c o n e e Gold BBQ Sauce and rubs Com and make sure to go use the code Tuffy talk all one word to get 15 off your entire order Y'all and make sure go check out our amazing Patreon too as well that my man Ethan here runs 3 videos per week Uh so 12 videos a month for only 5 bucks a month Go click link down description below to sign up today to get some amazing additional members only content I make sure all to give us follow toughie talk now on Twitter Instagram and TikTok And with that being said y'all we'll talk to y'all soon as always go pack y'all